24 listopadu, 2020


Posed by Max Frisch when he was awarded the honorary doctorate at the Technological University of Berlin, on June 29th 1987 - The original manuscript written in german can be found in the archive of the university - Translation German-English by André Baier and Andréa El-Khoury. Max Frisch used to ask 25 questions about various topics, i.e. property, love, death, friendship... They are all published in german with the title "Fragebogen" by Suhrkamp, Frankfurt.

These 25 questions highlight the relationship among technology, society and nature. They are not meant to be answered but help students question the benefits and dangers of technology.

Question 1

Are you sure that the preservation of humankind really interests you? Even when you and all the people you know are no longer alive?

Question 2

If your answer is yes, why did you not act differently up until now?

Question 3

What do you think has changed the human society more: the French Revolution or some technological invention such as electricity?

Question 4

Considering everything that we owe today thanks to the technological armament and development, such as the field of kitchen equipment, so are you thankful for the technologists and the ministers of defense who have been using our taxes to support the research of these technologists?

Question 5

As a layman, what invention do you wish for? (keywords are sufficient)

Question 6

Can you actually imagine the existence of mankind (that is: the first world) without a computer?

Question 7

If yes: Do you feel terrified, nostalgic or nothing at all facing a computer, for there is nothing the computer cannot handle?

Question 8

During your lifetime, which devices have been introduced to the market even when they were never needed throughout the human history? Please name these devices without mentioning the manufacturers. Why do you buy these devices: a) for economic growth? b) because you believe the advertisement?

Question 9

Dinosaurs survived 250 million years; how do you imagine an economic growth for 250 million years? (Keywords are sufficient)

Question 10

If a technologist considers him/herself apolitical because he doesn’t give a damn which person in power uses his technological inventions: What do you think of this technologist?

Question 11

Assuming you are satisfied with the present society, because there is no better society to be found: Do you think governments are necessary in the age of practical constraint, as the rulers invoke practical constraints anyway?

Question 12

If someone heard of laser-rays and had no idea what they were, would you, honestly, as a scientist, take seriously the points of view of a layman and consider his/her political demonstration?

Question 13

Do you believe in a republic of scholars?

Question 14

When did technology stop easing the existence of mankind (as was the purpose of devices) and started creating a dominance over us? When did technology create a dominance over nature, which results in taking nature away from us?

Question 15

Assuming that the catastrophe is avoidable, do you think that techno-mania is an irreversible process?

Question 16

Can you imagine a society where scientists are responsible for crimes made possible because of their invention, i.e. a theocracy?

Question 17

Assuming you are not only satisfied with the present society but you answer with tear gas when someone questions this society: Are you not afraid that men are inevitably getting dumber without a big utopia or do you feel so postmodern-comfortable because of that?

Question 18

In terms of technological feasibility, what do you think today of the metaphor from the bible about the forbidden apple from the tree of knowledge? a) do you believe in the freedom of research? b) do you agree with the pope who condemned Galileo for proving that the earth turns around the sun?

Question 19

Considering you are interested in the invention of a device that eliminates public lying: Who do you think would finance such audacious research?

Question 20

Which invention would you not like to see invented?

Question 21

Does it happen that a technological invention, once it is created, refuses a use that is not in the intention of the inventor?

Question 22

Do you think that the current education of the human mind basically leads to self-extinction of our species?

Question 23

What, if not wishful thinking alone, speaks against it?

Question 24

Do you know what encourages you to do research?

Question 25

As a scientist, do you believe in mature technology, meaning a technological research in the scope of a UNIVERSITAS HUMANITATIS, in german: Do you believe in the Technische Universität of Berlin?

Source: http://www.blue-engineering.org/wiki/Baukasten:English_Questionnaire_Max_Frisch

Max Frisch’s Questionnaire

Switzerland writer Max Frisch wrote few questions which are really interesting. This questions are interesting not for some score but just for themselves to be risen up and to expand our horizons of thoughts.

Q: Are you really interested in the preservation of the human race once you and all the people you know are no longer alive? State briefly why.

A: Yes, I`m human and I want our race to continue.

Q: How many of your children do not owe their existence to deliberate intention?

A: None, I don`t have children yet.

Q: Whom would you rather never have met?

A: No-one, I`m grateful for every person I have meet and it brings me a lot of experience - bad or good, that doesn’t matter. 
Q: Are you conscious of being in the wrong in relation to some other person (who need not necessarily be aware of it)? If so, does this make you hate yourself – or the other person?

A: Yes, that`s make me angry.

Q: Would you like to have perfect memory?

A: Human memory is good as it is, there is nothing like perfect memory.

Q: Give the name of a politician whose death through illness, accident, etc. would fill you with hope. Or do you consider none of them indispensible?

A: I don`t wish any harm to any person or human being. 

Q: Which person or persons, now dead, would you like to see again?

A: My grandfather.

Q: Which not?

A: None

Q: Would you rather have belonged to a different nation (or civilization)? If so, which?

A: I think our nation is fine, there is no better (perfect) nation.

Q: To what age do you wish to live?

A: at least 115 years

Q: If you had the power to put into effect things you consider right, would you do so against the wishes of the majority? (Yes or no)

A: Yes

Q: Why not, if you think they are right? 

Q: Which do you find it easier to hate, a group or an individual? And do you prefer to hate individually or as part of a group?

A: It`s easily to hate group without face but haters is wrong even for group or individual. 

Q: When did you stop believing you could become wiser – or do you still believe it? Give your age.

A: I still believe I can be wiser, everyone can. I`m now 25 years old.

Q: Are you convinced by your own self-criticism?

A: Yes, one of the biggest. 

Q: What in your opinion do others dislike about you, and what do you dislike about yourself? If not the same thing, which do you find it easier to excuse?

A: Others dot like my mood swing, my opinions which they don`t understand or seem correct to them. I don`t like also my mood swing and sometimes my stubborn. It`s easier to excuse my strong opinions towards others, I do it for their own good. 
Q: Do you find the thought that you might never have been born (if it ever occurs to you) disturbing?

A: Not at all

Q: When you think of someone dead, would you like him to speak to you, or would you rather say something more to him?

A: Both, conversation would be nice.

Q: Do you love anybody?

A: Yes, I do.

Q: How do you know?

A: I`m smart person, I know.

Q: Let us assume that you have never killed another human being. How do you account for it?

A: It`s natural to not kill your own species. 

Q: What do you need in order to be happy?

A: Free-time, money, company, books, sport, sex, love, animals, shelter, invention, food, sun 

Q: What are you grateful for?

A: I`m grateful for human existence and all human being on the planet. 

Q: Which would you rather do: die or live on as a healthy animal? Which animal?

A: Animal, totally animal! Almost anyone fish, cat, bird, dog, elephant. My favorite would be dog. 

2017-09-16 10:57:00

02 listopadu, 2020

Volby USA 2020

Zítra bude volební den pro rozhodnutí o výsledku voleb prezidenta v USA pro rok 2020.

Já osobně předpovídám, že vyhraje Joe Biden s velkým předstihem. Byla by to velká úleva a patrně by to uklidnilo aktuální situaci. V případě, že vyhraje znovu Trump - no pak bůh s námi.

Pro zasmání dole je video k aktuální volební situaci a zprávám ohledně Deep Fake od tvůrců South Parku. 

01 listopadu, 2020

Vývoje epidemie COVIDu - předpověď pro ČR

Epidemie korona viru již pomalu oslaví svoje první narozeniny a proto bych si rád zkusil předpověď její budoucí vývoj, který nás čeká v příštích dnech a měsících v České Republice.

Nejprve data k dnešnímu dni - 1.11. 2020

  • Počet nakažených v ČR: 335,102
  • Počet nově potvrzených případů za den: cca 10.000
  • Počet vyléčených v ČR: 145,000

Nyní několik pozorování:

  1. Virus se šíří samovolně a opatření na jeho šíření nemají velký vliv
  2. Výskyt viru je velmi ovlivněn počasím - jakmile klesne teplota na rozmezí mezi 4 -10 stupňů a je vlhko, virus se začne velmi rychle šířit.
  3. Nikdo neví, proč reprodukční číslo klesá nebo stoupá, nejsme schopni ho kontrolovat.
  4. Jediné co dokáže šíření viru utlumit je kompletní zákaz vycházení a zamezení osobnímu setkání osob.

Pro další předpověď vycházejme z těchto faktů:

  • V ČR žije v současnosti 10.5 milionů obyvatel
  • Z toho 1.5 milionů jsou děti do 15 let (tuto skupinu můžeme označit jako imunní)
  • Obyvatel nad 65+ je nyní více jak 2 miliony.

K dosažení takzvané skupinové imunity, je potřeba aby si vytvořilo protilátky minimálně 60% populace, která tento virus může přenášet. Tedy pro náš příklad je to minimálně 5.5 milionů obyvatel, kteří musí projít touto infekcí.

Ve skupině 15+ máme v ČR 9 milionů obyvatel. Předpokládejme, že infekce, kterou jsme schopni zachytit testováním je asi 5 - 10 méně, než je skutečný výskyt viru. Mnoho lidí nemá žádné příznaky a nebo se nedají testovat a zůstávají v domácím prostředí.

Pokud vycházíme z faktoru 5x - to znamená 335,102 * 5 = 1,675,510 již bylo infikováno. V případě faktoru 10x je to 3,351,020 - tedy téměř tři a půl miliónu. 

V méně optimálním scénáři, kdy se nyní nakazilo pouze milion a půl obyvatelstva, je to stále dlouhá cesta - při současném tempu nákazy by to trvalo asi 80 dní.

(5 500 000 - 1 500 000) / 50 000 = 80

Při vyšším faktoru 10x, jsme schopni tohoto čísla dosáhnout již za 20 dní.

(5 500 000 - 3 500 000) / 100 000 = 20

Co z toho plyne:

V České Republice jsme na velmi dobré cestě dosáhnout skupinové imunity do konce roku 2020 v horším scénáři až na jarě 2021. 

Covid jako takový tu patrně bude dále, vrátí se znovu ve větší síle v březnu a únoru, pokud počasí bude teplejší, nebude mrznout a začne více pršet.

Tak či tak, pokud opět skončí lockdown a lidé se začnou vracet do normálního života, po Vánocích a na jaře by již nemělo být tolik lidí, kteří by tento virus mohli roznášet. Samotná smrtelnost viru je v ČR velmi malá a diskuze by se měla vést o tom, jak posílit zdravotnictví a zajistit dostatečný počet lůžek pro pacienty. 

Zdroj: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-thresholds-for-effective-herd-immunity-could-be-lower-than-predicted-heres-why-145069